Ethiopia
East Africa · ETH
ASAP hotspot · FEWS priority
Outflow sketch
714k
12-month corridor volume
Mortality risk
165k
Illustrative excess / year
Inbound drawdown
—
Extra pressure from arrivals
IPC-scale need
15.8M
Modelled people in need
FEWS phase
—
No national brief this scan
Disease pressure
7.0
Baseline 5.1 · WHO outweighs CDC
Conflict pressure
6.4
Baseline 6.2 · fiercest area
Conflict areas
Highest intensity sets the country score. Extra areas add a smaller amount.
Ethiopia regional conflict
insurgency · 2
Amhara and Oromia · federal forces, regional armed groups
Fresh water
7.1
Baseline 6.9
Fertilizer
7.6
Baseline 7.6
Crop outlook
7.7
Baseline 7.4
Yield stress
7.2
Baseline 6.9
Rainfall stress
7.6
Baseline 7.2
Fuel shortage
9.1
Baseline 7.2
Mortality risk
8.1
Baseline 7.5
Migration pressure
7.5
Baseline 7.1
Fragility
8.1
Baseline 7.9
Food pressure
8.3
Baseline 7.8
Demography
8.0
Baseline 8.0
Amplifiers
8.6
Baseline 7.8
This cycle
Live delta +5.3 versus structural baseline
- Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
- Disease pressure +1.9 (Polio, Measles). WHO outweighs a CDC-only notice
- Yield stress rose with rainfall or a drought report. This is not a live NDVI download
- Displacement signals raised modelled outflow pressure
- Live conflict or displacement signals this cycle
- Food availability pressure lifted by the ingest
- FSI 2024
- 98.0
- Food need (est.)
- 16%
- Pop. growth (base)
- 2.50%
- Pop. growth (live)
- 2.55%
Schematic corridors
Out to Kenya · 140k · food
Matched events
Assigned from this cycle’s ingest
- Level 2 - Global Polio
cdc · disease
23 Sept 2026
COD · CAF · SSD · PNG · CIV · AFG · ETH · PAK · CMR · TZA · DJI · SOM · NGA · NAM · DZA · MWI · AGO · ZMB · SDN · YEM · NER · BEN · TCD · MLI · TGO · LAO
- Level 1 - Global Measles
cdc · disease
28 May 2025
COD · CAF · SSD · DOM · PNG · GNB · CIV · BFA · SLE · ZAF · AFG · PHL · SLV · PRK · TLS · MDG · MOZ · MRT · BGD · GMB · KGZ · TJK · UZB · KAZ · AZE · LKA · VEN · GTM · NIC · ARG · IDN · ETH · PAK · ZWE · CMR · TZA · DJI · HND · COL · PRY · SWZ · BWA · KHM · THA · MYS · SOM · NGA · BDI · SEN · ERI · LBN · MMR · TUR · UKR · BOL · ECU · LBR · NAM · LSO · COM · TUN · DZA · MAR · VNM · ARM · GEO · MDA · MWI · UGA · RWA · AGO · ZMB · JOR · MEX · BRA · GIN · RUS · SDN · YEM · HTI · NER · SYR · KEN · GHA · IND · NPL · LBY · EGY · BEN · CHN · TCD · MLI · IRQ · IRN · CUB · PER · TGO · LAO
- Territory seized: ETHIOPIA — Tigray
gdelt · conflict
04 Oct 2026
ETH
- Orange · Drought in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad
gdacs · drought
21 Jun 2026
COD · CAF · CMR · DJI · ERI · ETH · KEN · NER · NGA · SDN · SOM · SSD · TCD
Geometry
Radar versus the current top four; trend uses FSI-derived watch scores