DR Congo · disease
Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Illustration of the signal, not a wire photo
This week. Conflict in Ukraine, Djibouti, North Korea, Ethiopia, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and Cuba, and others. Critical band, 6. Up 1 from last week. That is the number of countries with a watch score of 85 or higher, the top of this illustrative overlay, not a failure date. Severe band, 11. Unchanged from last week. That is countries scored from 72 to 84, under pressure but below the critical line. Modelled outflow, 13.8 million. No prior week is filed. That is a 12-month sketch of people moving on the corridors, not an official migration count. Mortality risk, 3,672 thousand. No prior week is filed. That is an illustrative excess-death figure for the year, not an agency toll.
Cycle 2026 · W40 · W40 filed
Hydra watch
One hundred country scarcity overlay. Illustrative scores, not an agency product and not a failure date. Food follows FEWS NET national phases where a brief exists. Disease, conflict areas, rainfall and price shocks move the rest. Next pass …. 18 signals dated in the last 24 hours.
Critical band
6
Watch score ≥ 85
Severe band
11
Watch score 72–84
Modelled outflow
13.8M
12-month corridor sketch
Mortality risk
3672k
Illustrative excess deaths / year
Self-monitor
Last ingest 04 Oct, 21:48 UTC
- 20
GDELT conflict reports
Material conflict on the roster, from the 15-minute export. Kept from a good pull 74 min ago.
- 80
World Bank population growth
Annual series cached. Not pulled again on the 15-minute scan.
- 2
USGS earthquakes
Significant quakes, past week
- 22
CDC travel notices
Level 1–4 notices, current list
- 40
NASA EONET
Open natural events
- 7
WHO Disease Outbreak News
Last 150 days, severity by pathogen
- 30
IFRC emergencies
Red Cross emergency events, last 150 days
- 6
GDACS alerts
Orange and red floods, storms, drought, quakes
- 14
NASA POWER rainfall
14 countries · 11 averaged across two zones · 2 drier · 8 wetter than normal
- 36
FEWS NET classifications
36 national classifications, latest 2026-07. Zone files are not scanned.
- 2
Fuel and fertilizer prices
US crude-petroleum producer prices +16.3% versus a year earlier. Not a spot price. US nitrogen-fertilizer producer prices -0.1% versus the prior year. Proxy, not a local farmgate price. Crude exporters on the roster are spared the fuel move. Kept from a good pull 74 min ago.
Food check against FEWS
36 countries with a national phase
Phase 3 or worse
26
Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe
Structural match
17/22
Food baseline ≥ 7 and phase ≥ 3
Phase worsened
—
Since the prior national brief
3 countries are in phase 3 or worse with a structural food score under 6. US crude-petroleum producer prices +16.3% versus a year earlier. Not a spot price. US nitrogen-fertilizer producer prices -0.1% versus the prior year. Proxy, not a local farmgate price. Crude exporters on the roster are spared the fuel move. Kept from a good pull 74 min ago.
Disease stressors
29 WHO and CDC notices · severity and spread lift the watch score
- Ebola — Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo
WHO · local
Sev 4
DR Congo · South Sudan
- Ebola — Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo
WHO · local · 2 updates
Sev 4
DR Congo
- Ebola — Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo
WHO · regional · 10 updates
Sev 4
DR Congo · Uganda
- Ebola — Level 4 - Ebola Bundibugyo Virus Disease in Ituri and Nord-Kivu Provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
CDC · local · 2 updates
Sev 4
DR Congo
- Hantavirus — Hantavirus outbreak linked to cruise ship travel, Multi-locations
WHO · global · 2 updates
Sev 4
No roster country named in the notice
- Nipah — Nipah virus disease - India
WHO · local
Sev 4
India
Wars and armed groups
Country score uses the fiercest area, then a smaller add for each extra theater. Live reports add at most 2.2 points.
Sudan civil war
Darfur, Khartoum, Kordofan · Sudanese Armed Forces, Rapid Support Forces
war · 4
Yemen civil war
Highlands and west coast · Houthis, internationally recognized government
war · 4
Somalia insurgency
South and center · al-Shabaab, Somali federal forces
terrorism · 4
Eastern DRC conflict
North Kivu and Ituri · M23, other armed groups
insurgency · 4
Sahel insurgency
Liptako-Gourma · JNIM, state forces
terrorism · 4
Russia–Ukraine war
east and south · Russian armed forces, Ukrainian armed forces
war · 4
This cycle
Largest lifts, phase steps, feeds that left a hold
Priority roster
100 of 100 · sorted by live watch score
Phase is the FEWS national phase. Rain is rainfall stress. Yield is modelled yield stress. War is conflict pressure. Open a name for the live lift against the structural score.
| Watch | Score | Cycle | Phase | Rain | Yield | Dis. | War | Mig k | Cluster |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
90.9critical | +4.1 | 4 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 651 | MENA | |
89.8critical | +4.6 | 4 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 1004 | East Africa | |
89.8critical | +4.1 | 4 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 533 | Horn of Africa | |
88.4critical | +2.8 | 4 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 1896 | East Africa | |
86.2critical | +0.4 | — | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 50 | MENA | |
85.1critical | +3.9 | 3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 758 | South Asia | |
83.4severe | +2.0 | 4 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 420 | Caribbean | |
82.5severe | +3.8 | 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 297 | Sahel | |
81.8severe | +6.8 | 3 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 957 | Central Africa | |
80.2severe | +3.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 318 | Sahel | |
79.7severe | -0.1 | 3 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 480 | MENA | |
79.6severe | +3.8 | 4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 265 | Sahel | |
78.5severe | +4.2 | 3 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 189 | Central Africa | |
77.3severe | +5.3 | — | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 714 | East Africa | |
76.2severe | +5.5 | 4 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 567 | West Africa | |
74.0severe | +0.5 | 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 220 | Sahel | |
73.9severe | +4.5 | 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 399 | South Asia | |
69.3elevated | +2.9 | — | 8.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 82 | Horn of Africa | |
68.0elevated | +4.9 | — | 8.3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 16 | Horn of Africa | |
67.9elevated | +1.4 | — | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 280 | Southeast Asia | |
67.7elevated | +4.0 | 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 97 | Central Africa | |
67.3elevated | +2.6 | — | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 8 | East Asia | |
66.8elevated | +0.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 110 | Southern Africa | |
65.0elevated | +1.7 | 3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 95 | MENA | |
64.4elevated | +4.9 | 3 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 126 | East Africa | |
63.8elevated | +4.3 | 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 9.6 | 210 | Europe | |
63.6elevated | -1.3 | 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 140 | Southern Africa | |
63.6elevated | +2.4 | — | 7.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 40 | Sahel | |
63.5elevated | +1.7 | — | 6.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 133 | MENA | |
63.2elevated | +2.0 | — | 7.0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 70 | MENA | |
62.7elevated | -0.6 | 2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 95 | Southern Africa | |
62.4elevated | +2.3 | — | 5.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 15 | West Africa | |
62.3elevated | +6.8 | 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 92 | East Africa | |
61.4elevated | +0.3 | 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 85 | Southern Africa | |
61.0elevated | +1.3 | — | 5.6 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 12 | West Africa | |
60.4elevated | +1.0 | 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 320 | Latin America | |
60.3elevated | -1.1 | 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 70 | East Africa | |
60.2elevated | +3.9 | 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 180 | Latin America | |
60.2elevated | +2.1 | — | 5.2 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 10 | West Africa | |
59.8watch | +2.1 | — | 5.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 8 | West Africa | |
59.5watch | +5.2 | — | 4.6 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 15 | Central Africa | |
59.1watch | +1.4 | — | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 2 | Indian Ocean | |
58.6watch | +3.2 | 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 77 | Central America | |
57.4watch | +3.0 | 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 68 | Central America | |
56.9watch | +4.2 | — | 5.8 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 41 | East Africa | |
56.8watch | +0.1 | 2 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 55 | Southern Africa | |
56.5watch | +3.8 | — | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 65 | MENA | |
56.5watch | +7.3 | — | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 210 | South Asia | |
56.1watch | +1.2 | — | 7.2 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 40 | MENA | |
56.1watch | +3.9 | — | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 21 | Central America | |
56.0watch | +2.7 | — | 5.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 6 | Pacific | |
55.9watch | +2.8 | — | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 90 | South Asia | |
55.8watch | +1.0 | 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 45 | Southern Africa | |
55.7watch | +4.6 | — | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 16 | Caribbean | |
55.0watch | +1.3 | — | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 6 | West Africa | |
54.9watch | +2.4 | — | 6.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 55 | West Africa | |
54.8watch | +1.3 | — | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 80 | MENA | |
54.8watch | +1.4 | — | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2 | Southeast Asia | |
54.5watch | -1.0 | 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 8 | Southern Africa | |
54.1watch | +3.2 | 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 8 | West Africa | |
53.7watch | +1.3 | — | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 4 | Southern Africa | |
52.8watch | +2.4 | 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 26 | Central America | |
52.2watch | +2.2 | — | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 35 | South Asia | |
52.2watch | +3.3 | — | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 15 | Latin America | |
52.2watch | +2.7 | — | 5.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 41 | Southern Africa | |
52.2watch | +1.4 | — | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 6 | Central Asia | |
51.9watch | +1.5 | 2 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 20 | West Africa | |
51.8watch | +3.0 | — | 6.6 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 6 | Southern Africa | |
51.7watch | +2.5 | — | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 50 | Southeast Asia | |
51.5watch | +4.0 | — | 5.9 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 92 | Latin America | |
51.4watch | +1.3 | — | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 25 | East Africa | |
51.1watch | +4.2 | — | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 10.0 | 44 | Europe | |
50.7watch | +0.2 | 2 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 50 | South Asia | |
50.4watch | +2.4 | — | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 12 | Southeast Asia | |
50.2watch | +2.8 | — | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10 | West Africa | |
49.9watch | +1.9 | — | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 30 | Latin America | |
49.3watch | +2.8 | — | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 8 | Southeast Asia | |
49.2watch | +1.3 | — | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 30 | West Africa | |
49.2watch | +2.0 | — | 6.8 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 15 | MENA | |
49.2watch | +1.4 | — | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 8 | Central Asia | |
49.1watch | +2.3 | — | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 40 | Latin America | |
49.1watch | +1.3 | — | 6.4 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 12 | MENA | |
48.8watch | +1.4 | — | 6.2 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 8 | Central Asia | |
48.2watch | +1.8 | — | 5.4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 10 | Caucasus | |
47.9watch | +1.3 | — | 6.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 20 | MENA | |
47.7watch | +2.7 | — | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 15 | Europe | |
47.2watch | +1.4 | — | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 40 | MENA | |
47.2watch | +2.8 | — | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 21 | Caribbean | |
45.5watch | +1.9 | — | 4.6 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 12 | Caucasus | |
45.1watch | +0.6 | — | 5.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 8 | Caucasus | |
45.0watch | +1.4 | — | 6.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 4 | Southern Africa | |
44.3watch | +2.8 | — | 4.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 25 | Southeast Asia | |
43.2watch | +1.4 | — | 5.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 30 | East Asia | |
42.1watch | +2.5 | — | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 41 | Latin America | |
41.9watch | +3.7 | — | 4.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 15 | Southeast Asia | |
40.8watch | +2.1 | — | 4.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 20 | Southeast Asia | |
40.5watch | +0.6 | — | 5.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 8 | Central Asia | |
38.8watch | +1.4 | — | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 8 | Latin America | |
37.4watch | +2.5 | — | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 12 | Southeast Asia | |
37.1watch | +2.1 | — | 4.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 25 | Latin America |
Five-view risk geometry
Follows the roster filter
Live ingest
Newest IFRC, GDACS, USGS and EONET items
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