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Uganda

East Africa · UGA

elevated · 62.3

Outflow sketch

92k

12-month corridor volume

Mortality risk

28k

Illustrative excess / year

Inbound drawdown

+28.0%

Extra pressure from arrivals

IPC-scale need

2.1M

Modelled people in need

FEWS phase

3

Crisis · 2026-07

Disease pressure

8.1

Baseline 3.9 · WHO outweighs CDC

Conflict pressure

2.3

Baseline 2.3 · fiercest area

Fresh water

4.3

Baseline 4.0

Fertilizer

6.3

Baseline 6.3

Crop outlook

6.4

Baseline 6.1

Yield stress

6.2

Baseline 5.8

Rainfall stress

5.5

Baseline 5.0

Fuel shortage

7.6

Baseline 6.0

Mortality risk

6.5

Baseline 5.6

Migration pressure

5.2

Baseline 5.2

Fragility

6.7

Baseline 6.7

Food pressure

6.8

Baseline 6.2

Demography

8.0

Baseline 8.0

Amplifiers

7.2

Baseline 6.5

This cycle

Live delta +6.8 versus structural baseline

  • FEWS national phase 3 (Crisis) as of 2026-07
  • Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
  • Disease pressure +4.2 (Ebola, Measles). WHO outweighs a CDC-only notice
  • Yield stress rose with rainfall or a drought report. This is not a live NDVI download
  • Live conflict or displacement signals this cycle
FSI 2024
90.0
Food need (est.)
4%
Pop. growth (base)
2.80%
Pop. growth (live)
—

Schematic corridors

In from South Sudan · 290k · food, conflict

In from DR Congo · 220k · conflict, food

Matched events

Assigned from this cycle’s ingest

Geometry

Radar versus the current top four; trend uses FSI-derived watch scores