Method

• Food — 35% structural, 65% FEWS national phase when a brief exists. A near-term national projection is used only if that feed returns one.
• Water — Aqueduct-style stress.
• Fertilizer — structural input risk, then a US nitrogen-fertilizer producer-price move. That is a proxy, not a local farmgate price.
• Fuel — structural shortage, then the Brent move. Nigeria, Angola, Iraq and Iran are spared that import shock.
• Yield stress — structural only, plus drought or rainfall language. Not a live NDVI download.
• Rainfall — structural deficit, then NASA POWER at the centroid and a second zone in the largest countries.
• Disease — structural vulnerability. WHO outbreak notices weigh more than a CDC travel level alone.
• Conflict — fiercest mapped theater in the country, plus a smaller add per extra area, then a capped live-report lift.
• Fragility, demography, crop outlook, mortality and migration stay structural, and still move when a matching report arrives.

Food 10%, water 9%, fragility 10%, conflict and disease 8% each, mortality and migration 8% each, amplifiers 7%, demography and crop 6%, fertilizer, yield stress, rainfall and fuel 5%.

• Critical ≥ 85
• Severe 72–84
• Elevated 60–71
• Watch below 60

• Each board load pulls IFRC emergencies, NASA EONET, GDACS, USGS, WHO, CDC, and GDELT. FEWS national phases and Brent / fertilizer prices refresh on a slower cache. World Bank population growth is annual and is held for seven days. A stale board is shown immediately while the next scan finishes.
• Event results cache for 15 minutes. An open board asks again on that cadence.
• WHO notices from the last 150 days are kept. CDC-only notices count at about half a WHO notice for the same severity.
• Named wars and armed campaigns are scored by area. Live headlines can add up to 2.2. Party names are not a designation list.
• GEOGLAM and ASAP names stay on the country as flags. They no longer add a fake weekly yield number.
• NASA POWER rainfall is cached for six hours. Large countries are an average of two zones.
• The first scan of each ISO week is stored as a shared snapshot, without an account. This browser still keeps its own history.

Corridors are simplified paths toward the next modelled node. Destination acceleration scales inbound volume against local population. Sub-national zones cover Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen only. Keyword matching uses whole phrases so Niger is not Nigeria.