Weekly brief

Desk note

Cycle 2026 · W40. Illustrative overlay, not an agency product and not a failure date.
Roster 100. Critical 6. Severe 11.

Largest lifts this pass
India +7.3 · watch · 56.5
DR Congo +6.8 · severe · 81.8
Uganda +6.8 · elevated · 62.3
Nigeria +5.5 · severe · 76.2
Ethiopia +5.3 · severe · 77.3

FEWS phase steps versus the prior national brief
No national phase moved against the prior brief on this roster.

Feeds that left a hold
None this pass.

Critical band
Yemen 90.9 (+4.1) · phase 4 · FEWS national phase 4 (Emergency) as of 2026-07; Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
South Sudan 89.8 (+4.6) · phase 4 · FEWS national phase 4 (Emergency) as of 2026-07; Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
Somalia 89.8 (+4.1) · phase 4 · FEWS national phase 4 (Emergency) as of 2026-07; Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
Sudan 88.4 (+2.8) · phase 4 · FEWS national phase 4 (Emergency) as of 2026-07; Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
Palestine 86.2 (+0.4) · no national phase · Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6
Afghanistan 85.1 (+3.9) · phase 3 · FEWS national phase 3 (Crisis) as of 2026-07; Brent +16.3% moved fuel stress +1.6

Sources
GDELT conflict reports: 20 — Material conflict on the roster, from the 15-minute export. Kept from a good pull 2 h ago.
World Bank population growth: 80 — Annual series cached. Not pulled again on the 15-minute scan.
USGS earthquakes: 2 — Significant quakes, past week
CDC travel notices: 22 — Level 1–4 notices, current list
NASA EONET: 40 — Open natural events
WHO Disease Outbreak News: 7 — Last 150 days, severity by pathogen
IFRC emergencies: 30 — Red Cross emergency events, last 150 days
GDACS alerts: 6 — Orange and red floods, storms, drought, quakes
NASA POWER rainfall: 14 — 14 countries · 11 averaged across two zones · 2 drier · 8 wetter than normal
FEWS NET classifications: 36 — 36 national classifications, latest 2026-07. Zone files are not scanned.
Fuel and fertilizer prices: 2 — US crude-petroleum producer prices +16.3% versus a year earlier. Not a spot price. US nitrogen-fertilizer producer prices -0.1% versus the prior year. Proxy, not a local farmgate price. Crude exporters on the roster are spared the fuel move. Kept from a good pull 2 h ago.

The model has not been asked yet. The score log also lives on the cycle desk.