Nigeria
West Africa · NGA
ASAP hotspot · FEWS priority
Outflow sketch
567k
12-month corridor volume
Mortality risk
210k
Illustrative excess / year
Inbound drawdown
—
Extra pressure from arrivals
IPC-scale need
30.6M
Modelled people in need
FEWS phase
4
Emergency · 2026-07
Disease pressure
7.4
Baseline 4.8 · WHO outweighs CDC
Conflict pressure
8.2
Baseline 8.0 · fiercest area
Conflict areas
Highest intensity sets the country score. Extra areas add a smaller amount.
Lake Chad insurgency
terrorism · 3
northeast Nigeria · Boko Haram, ISWAP
Fresh water
5.9
Baseline 5.9
Fertilizer
7.2
Baseline 7.2
Crop outlook
7.2
Baseline 6.9
Yield stress
6.7
Baseline 6.4
Rainfall stress
6.2
Baseline 6.5
Fuel shortage
8.1
Baseline 7.8
Mortality risk
7.8
Baseline 7.0
Migration pressure
6.9
Baseline 6.5
Fragility
7.8
Baseline 7.6
Food pressure
8.7
Baseline 7.4
Demography
8.4
Baseline 8.5
Amplifiers
9.3
Baseline 8.2
This cycle
Live delta +5.5 versus structural baseline
- FEWS national phase 4 (Emergency) as of 2026-07
- Disease pressure +2.6 (Polio, Diphtheria, Measles). WHO outweighs a CDC-only notice
- NASA POWER: sampled zones wetter than the local monthly normal
- Yield stress rose with rainfall or a drought report. This is not a live NDVI download
- Displacement signals raised modelled outflow pressure
- Live conflict or displacement signals this cycle
- FSI 2024
- 96.6
- Food need (est.)
- 14%
- Pop. growth (base)
- 2.40%
- Pop. growth (live)
- 2.06%
No corridor sketch touches this country.
Matched events
Assigned from this cycle’s ingest
- Level 2 - Global Polio
cdc · disease
23 Sept 2026
COD · CAF · SSD · PNG · CIV · AFG · ETH · PAK · CMR · TZA · DJI · SOM · NGA · NAM · DZA · MWI · AGO · ZMB · SDN · YEM · NER · BEN · TCD · MLI · TGO · LAO
- Level 1 - Diphtheria in Sub-Saharan Africa
cdc · disease
25 Aug 2026
MRT · SOM · NGA · SEN · GIN · NER · TCD · MLI
- Level 1 - Global Measles
cdc · disease
28 May 2025
COD · CAF · SSD · DOM · PNG · GNB · CIV · BFA · SLE · ZAF · AFG · PHL · SLV · PRK · TLS · MDG · MOZ · MRT · BGD · GMB · KGZ · TJK · UZB · KAZ · AZE · LKA · VEN · GTM · NIC · ARG · IDN · ETH · PAK · ZWE · CMR · TZA · DJI · HND · COL · PRY · SWZ · BWA · KHM · THA · MYS · SOM · NGA · BDI · SEN · ERI · LBN · MMR · TUR · UKR · BOL · ECU · LBR · NAM · LSO · COM · TUN · DZA · MAR · VNM · ARM · GEO · MDA · MWI · UGA · RWA · AGO · ZMB · JOR · MEX · BRA · GIN · RUS · SDN · YEM · HTI · NER · SYR · KEN · GHA · IND · NPL · LBY · EGY · BEN · CHN · TCD · MLI · IRQ · IRN · CUB · PER · TGO · LAO
- Abduction: PRESIDENT — Kaduna
gdelt · conflict
04 Oct 2026
NGA
- NGA: Population Movement - 08-2026
ifrc · other
18 Aug 2026
NGA
- NGA: Flood - 08-2026 - Flood – Ondo State, Nigeria
ifrc · flood
17 Aug 2026
NGA
Geometry
Radar versus the current top four; trend uses FSI-derived watch scores